About this Scenario Explorer

This is a pre-release of the harmonized ScenarioMIP emissions. Please refer to the Rules for data use and data sharing of the IAM ScenarioMIP Data.

About ScenarioMIP and the harmonized emissions data

ScenarioMIP-CMIP7 consists of alternative plausible futures including quantified emissions and land use.

The primary objectives of ScenarioMIP are to:

1. Facilitate integrated research leading to a better understanding of the physical climate system consequences of future scenarios and their impact on natural and social systems, including adaptation and mitigation considerations.
2. Provide a basis for addressing targeted science questions about the climate effects of aspects of forcing relevant to scenario-based research.
3. Provide a basis for various international efforts that target improved methods to quantify projection uncertainties based on multi-model ensembles.

ScenarioMIP is part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 7 (CMIP7) organised by the World Climate Research Programme, and integrates research across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling (IAM), mitigation, and impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV) communities.

Seven IAM teams participated in the scenario development process. Each scenario has been implemented with multiple IAMs, and a marker scenario was selected from the available model interpretations. The current pre-release only has information on the marker scenarios, with additional non-marker quantifications to follow.

This pre-release hosts limited data, with the publication of more data variables to follow. The available data are the emissions variables that have gone into the climate emulator MAGICC and its climate outcomes. The reported emissions variables are harmonized to CMIP7 historical emissions, and consistent with CMIP7 earth system model forcings: GHG concentrations and gridded emissions, as available on the Earth System Grid Federation (see input4MIPs).

IAM ScenarioMIP team

• Scientific Lead : Keywan Riahi (IIASA, [email protected]); Detlef van Vuuren (PBL, [email protected])
• Emissions harmonization and infilling for CMIP7: Jarmo Kikstra (IIASA, [email protected]) and Zebedee Nicholls (Climate Resource, IIASA, Uni Melbourne, [email protected])
• ScenarioMIP IAM marker teams:
  • High Emissions Pathway (H) developed by GCAM: Mel George, Christoph J. Bertram, Andrew G. Miller, Xin Zhao, Claudia Rodes Bachs, Jay Fuhrman, Rachel Hoesly, Haewon C. McJeon, Brian O'Neill, Yang Ou, Jon Sampedro, Steven J. Smith, Dirk-Jan Van de Ven, Matt Gidden, Ryna Cui (CGS-UMD [Center for Global Sustainability, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA], KAIST, BC3, Peking University)
  • High-to-Low Emissions Pathway (HL) developed by WITCH: Laurent Drouet, Lara Aleluia (CMCC)
  • Medium Emissions Pathway (M) developed by IMAGE: Detlef van Vuuren, Vassilis Daioglou (PBL)
  • Medium-to-Low Emissions Pathway (ML) developed by COFFEE: Roberto Schaeffer, Luiz Bernardo Baptista, Gerd Angelkorte (COPPE)
    This pathway is still in development and will be included in a later release.
  • Low Emissions Pathway (L) developed by MESSAGE-GLOBIOM-GAINS: Oliver Fricko, Yazhen Wu, Shaohui Zhang, Stefan Frank, Mykola Gusti, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Aneeque Javaid, Siddarth Joshi, Diogo Kramel, Florian Maczek, Alessio Mastrucci, Setu Pelz, Yoga Pratama, Holger Rogner, Jun Shepard, Juliana Arbelaez-Gaviria, Luca Casamassima, Jinfeng Chang, Matthew Gidden, Anders Hammer-Stromman, Yiyi Ju, Jarmo Kikstra, Paul Natsuo Kishimoto, Marta Kozicka, Tamás Krisztin, David Leclère, Andrey Lessa Derci Augustynczik, Measrainsey Meng, Amanda Palazzo, Miguel Poblete, Pallav Purohit, Leopold Ringwald, Sibylle Rouet-Pollakis, Gamze Unlu, Adriano Vinca, Fabian Wagner, Wilfried Winiwarter, Michael Wögerer, Behnam Zakeri, Xiuming Zhang, Zbigniew Klimont, Shonali Pachauri, Petr Havlík, Bas van Ruijven, Keywan Riahi, Volker Krey (IIASA, NTNU)
  • Very Low Emissions Pathway (VL) developed by REMIND-MAGPIE: Elmar Kriegler, Laurin Köhler-Schindler, Florian Humpenöder (PIK)
  • Low-to-Negative Emissions Pathway (LN) developed by AIM: Shinichiro Fujimori, Tomoko Hasegawa (Kyoto University)
• Air pollution: Shaohui Zhang, Zbigniew Klimont (IIASA)

Citation