About
The ScenarioMIP explorer makes available a pre-release of the ScenarioMIP-CMIP7 ensemble to the scientific community and scenario users.
Background
The ScenarioMIP-CMIP7 ensemble is based on the scenario protocol proposed by van Vuuren et al. (2026) and implemented by seven teams from the Integrated Assessment Modeling community. The ensemble is described in a set of manuscripts submitted (or being prepared for submission) to Environmental Resarch Letters (ERL) in response to this Special Issue.
The ensemble is based on the "Shared Socioeconomic Pathways" (SSPs) using updated "basic elements" representing important drivers of GHG emissions from economic development and demographic change. Visit the SSP Scenario Explorer for more information.
The ScenarioMIP modeling activity is coordinated by the IAMC Scientific Working Group on Scenarios and part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 7 (CMIP7) organised by the World Climate Research Programme. Learn more...
About ScenarioMIP
ScenarioMIP-CMIP7 consists of alternative plausible futures including quantified emissions and land use.
The primary objectives of ScenarioMIP are to:
- Facilitate integrated research leading to a better understanding of the physical climate system consequences of future scenarios and their impact on natural and social systems, including adaptation and mitigation considerations.
- Provide a basis for addressing targeted science questions about the climate effects of aspects of forcing relevant to scenario-based research.
- Provide a basis for various international efforts that target improved methods to quantify projection uncertainties based on multi-model ensembles.
IAM ScenarioMIP team
- Scientific Lead : Keywan Riahi (IIASA, [email protected]); Detlef van Vuuren (PBL, [email protected])
- Emissions harmonization and infilling for CMIP7: Jarmo Kikstra (IIASA, [email protected]) and Zebedee Nicholls (Climate Resource, IIASA, Uni Melbourne, [email protected])
- ScenarioMIP IAM teams:
- High Emissions Pathway (H) developed by GCAM: Mel George, Christoph J. Bertram, Andrew G. Miller, Xin Zhao, Claudia Rodes Bachs, Jay Fuhrman, Rachel Hoesly, Haewon C. McJeon, Brian O'Neill, Yang Ou, Jon Sampedro, Steven J. Smith, Dirk-Jan Van de Ven, Matt Gidden, Ryna Cui (CGS-UMD [Center for Global Sustainability, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA], KAIST, BC3, Peking University)
- High-to-Low Emissions Pathway (HL) developed by WITCH: Laurent Drouet, Lara Aleluia (CMCC)
- Medium Emissions Pathway (M) developed by IMAGE: Elena Hooijschuur, Vassilis Daioglou, Harmen Sytze de Boer, Isabela Tagomori, Detlef van Vuuren (PBL)
- Medium-to-Low Emissions Pathway (ML) developed by COFFEE: Roberto Schaeffer, Luiz Bernardo Baptista, Gerd Angelkorte (COPPE)
- Low Emissions Pathway (L) developed by MESSAGE-GLOBIOM-GAINS: Oliver Fricko, Yazhen Wu, Shaohui Zhang, Stefan Frank, Mykola Gusti, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Aneeque Javaid, Siddarth Joshi, Diogo Kramel, Florian Maczek, Alessio Mastrucci, Setu Pelz, Yoga Pratama, Holger Rogner, Jun Shepard, Juliana Arbelaez-Gaviria, Luca Casamassima, Jinfeng Chang, Matthew Gidden, Anders Hammer-Stromman, Yiyi Ju, Jarmo Kikstra, Paul Natsuo Kishimoto, Marta Kozicka, Tamás Krisztin, David Leclère, Andrey Lessa Derci Augustynczik, Measrainsey Meng, Amanda Palazzo, Miguel Poblete, Pallav Purohit, Leopold Ringwald, Sibylle Rouet-Pollakis, Gamze Unlu, Adriano Vinca, Fabian Wagner, Wilfried Winiwarter, Michael Wögerer, Behnam Zakeri, Xiuming Zhang, Zbigniew Klimont, Shonali Pachauri, Petr Havlík, Bas van Ruijven, Keywan Riahi, Volker Krey (IIASA, NTNU)
- Very Low Emissions Pathway (VL) developed by REMIND-MAGPIE: Elmar Kriegler, Laurin Köhler-Schindler, Florian Humpenöder (PIK)
- Low-to-Negative Emissions Pathway (LN) developed by AIM: Shinichiro Fujimori, Tomoko Hasegawa (Kyoto University)
- Air pollution: Shaohui Zhang, Zbigniew Klimont (IIASA)
Participating modeling teams
"ScenarioMIP Explorer" is hosted by the Scenario Services and Scientific Software team at the IIASA Energy, Climate and Environment program.