ScenarioMIP IAM Quantification for CMIP7
ScenarioMIP Explorer
This explorer presents the quantifications of ScenarioMIP pathways developed by seven Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP7).
The ScenarioMIP scenario design
The scenarios in this database follow the experimental design of van Vuuren et al. (2026) : seven emission pathways that together span the range of plausible 21st-century futures, each chosen to answer distinct climate-science and policy questions.
Three pathways describe futures without strengthened climate policy: High (H) explores the risk of a rollback of current policies with rising emissions until 2100, while Medium (M) continues present-day policy trends. Medium-to-Low (ML) assumes mitigation is strengthened only with delay, reaching net-zero CO₂ around 2100 but falling short of the Paris Agreement goals.
Two pathways are consistent with the Paris temperature goals: Low (L) keeps warming likely (>66%) below 2°C, reaching net-zero CO₂ around 2070, and Very Low (VL) keeps peak warming as low as still plausible and returns warming to below 1.5°C by 2100.
The remaining two pathways are designed to study the reversibility of climate change: High-to-Low (HL) follows the 'High' pathway until mid-century before turning to deep emission reductions, and Low-to-Negative (LN) reaches Paris-consistent warming levels only after a substantial temperature overshoot, through sustained large-scale net-negative CO₂ emissions.
About the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)
The ScenarioMIP quantifications are based on the SSP framework. It consists of five storylines describing a spectrum from high to low challenges to adaptation (e.g., level of vulnerability in a society) and challenges to mitigation (e.g., carbon intensity of GDP).
Additional resources
Access download links and more information about the ScenarioMIP project.