ScenarioMIP Explorer
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Documentation

The scenario ensemble is described in the forthcoming special collection of manuscripts in Environmental Resarch Letters(ERL) on "Socioeconomic, Emissions and Land Use Futures: The ScenarioMIP Pathways for CMIP7" edited by Keywan Riahi, Detlef van Vuuren, Valentina Bosetti, Chen Wenying and Kristie L. Ebi.

Recommended citation

When using the ScenarioMIP-CMIP7 ensemble, please cite the dataset and the overview manuscript. Also consider citing other manuscripts listed below depending on the scope of analysis.

Overview manuscript and scenario ensemble

Overview of the Socioeconomic, Emissions and Land Use Futures of the ScenarioMIP-CMIP7 Pathways
Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D., et al. (2026)
Scenario data of the 'Socioeconomic, Emissions and Land Use Futures - The ScenarioMIP Pathways for CMIP7'
Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D., et al. (2026)
Zenodo
Download Data
DOI
10.5281/zenodo.22296051

Scenario drivers and basic elements

Economic growth in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: An update
Dellink, R., Crespo Cuaresma, J. et al. (2026)
Population and demographic change in the SSPs
KC, S.,Dhakad, M., Potančoková, M. et al. (2026)
Gini and subnational income distributions
Poblete Cazenave, M., Aktas, A. et al. (2026)
Preprint
Urbanization across the SSPs
Jiang, L., Zoraghein, H., O'Neill, B. et al. (2026)
Future level of services across main domains of human needs
van Ruijven, B., Zaini, T., Kikstra, J. et al. (2026)

Documentation of 'Marker Scenarios' and IAM Frameworks

For each ScenarioMIP pathway, a marker scenario was selected from the available model implementations. Each marker scenario and the underlying IAM framework is described in the following manuscripts.

H-GCAM: High scenario marker
George, M., Bertram, C., O'Neill, B. al. (2026)
HL-WITCH: High-to-Low scenario marker
Aleluia Reis L., Drouet, L.,Gambarini, M. et al. (2026)
M-IMAGE: Medium scenario marker
Hooijschuur, E., Daioglou, V., de Boer, H.S., Tagomori, I. et al. (2026)
ML-COFFEE Medium-Low scenario marker
Baptista, L.B., Schaeffer, R., Angelkorte, G. et al. (2026)
L-MESSAGE-GLOBIOM: Low scenario marker
Fricko, O., Wu, Y., Zhang, S. et al. (2026)
Preprint
L-Neg-AIM: Low-to-Negative scenario marker
Fujimori, S., Nishiura, O. et al. (2026)
Preprint
VL-REMIND-MAGPIE: Very Low scenario marker
Köhler-Schindler, L., Bauer, N., Baumstark, L., Humpenöder, F. et al. (2026)

Cross-cutting papers on land, energy and other dimensions

Energy transitions of the ScenarioMIP markers
Bertram, C., Luderer, G., Brutschin, E. et al. (2026)
Land-use, emissions, and sustainability futures across ScenarioMIP-CMIP7: a multi-model assessment
Popp, A., Humpenöder, F. Hasegawa, T. et al. (2026)
Preprint
Carbon dioxide removal deployment and sustainability assessment in the low emission scenarios for CMIP7
Nishiura O., Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T., Mori, S. et al. (2026)
Preprint
Non-CO₂ GHG emissions in future climate scenarios
Harmsen, M., Höglund Isaksson, L., Daioglou, V. et al. (2026)
Air pollution futures in scenarios for ScenarioMIP-CMIP7
Zhang S., Klimont, Z., Smith, S. et al. (2026)
Preprint
Land-use harmonization: Global historical land-use changes and future land-use projections
Chini, L., Hurtt, G. et al. (2026)

Emissions harmonization and climate assessment

Harmonized and gridded emissions dataset for ScenarioMIP-CMIP7
Kikstra, J.S., Nicholls, Z., Gidden, M. et al. (2026)
Probabilistic simple climate model projections in support of ScenarioMIP scenario development
Nicholls, Z., Sandstad, M., Sanderson, B., Gasser, T. , Smith, C. et al. (2026)
FLEX: ScenarioMIP CMIP7 Post-2100 Extensions Framework
Sandstad, M., Chini, L., Friedlinstein, P. et al. (2026)
Preprint

Pre-release of emissions and climate outcomes

Climate Assessment Data Explorer

Prior to the release of the ScenarioMIP-CMIP7 IAM quantifications, the harmonized and infilled emissions and climate outcomes for the marker scenarios was published as input to Earth System Models (ESMs) in the CMIP7 process.

ScenarioMIP-CMIP7 IAM quantification: Harmonized and Infilled Emissions and Climate Outcomes for Marker Scenarios
Kikstra, J., Nicholls, Z., Högner, A., Zecchetto, M., et al. (2026)
Zenodo
DOI
10.5281/zenodo.19825038