Documentation
Prerelease Disclaimer
This is a pre-release of the ScenarioMIP/CMIP7 ensemble. The scenario data available here is related to manuscripts in review and may change in future releases. When using the data, please note the version number and check frequently whether updates of the data or the related manuscripts have been released.
The scenario ensemble is described in the forthcoming special collection of manuscripts in Environmental Resarch Letters(ERL) on
Recommended citation
When using the ScenarioMIP/CMIP7 ensemble, please cite the dataset and the overview manuscript. Also consider citing other manuscripts listed below depending on the scope of analysis.
Preprints
Datasets and preprints of related manuscripts will be collected on Zenodo in the Scenariomip-CMIP7 community. Overview manuscript and scenario ensemble
Overview of the Socioeconomic, Emissions and Land Use Futures of the ScenarioMIP-CMIP7 Pathways
Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D., et al. (2026)
Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D., et al. (2026)
Scenario data of the 'Socioeconomic, Emissions and Land Use Futures - The ScenarioMIP Pathways for CMIP7'
Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D., et al. (2026)
Zenodo
Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D., et al. (2026)
Zenodo
Scenario drivers and basic elements
Economic growth in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: An update
Dellink, R., Crespo Cuaresma, J. et al. (2026)
to be submitted
Dellink, R., Crespo Cuaresma, J. et al. (2026)
to be submitted
Population and demographic change in the SSPs
KC, S.,Dhakad, M., Potančoková, M. et al. (2026)
to be submitted
KC, S.,Dhakad, M., Potančoková, M. et al. (2026)
to be submitted
Gini and subnational income distributions
Poblete Cazenave, M., Aktas, A. et al. (2026)
to be submitted
Poblete Cazenave, M., Aktas, A. et al. (2026)
to be submitted
Urbanization across the SSPs
Jiang, L., Zoraghein, H., O'Neill, B. et al. (2026)
to be submitted
Jiang, L., Zoraghein, H., O'Neill, B. et al. (2026)
to be submitted
Future level of services across main domains of human needs
van Ruijven, B., Zaini, T., Kikstra, J. et al. (2026)
to be submitted
van Ruijven, B., Zaini, T., Kikstra, J. et al. (2026)
to be submitted
Documentation of 'Marker Scenarios' and IAM Frameworks
For each ScenarioMIP pathway, a marker scenario was selected from the available model implementations. Each marker scenario and the underlying IAM framework is described in the following manuscripts.
H-GCAM: High scenario marker
George, M., Bertram, C., O'Neill, B. al. (2026)
to be submitted
George, M., Bertram, C., O'Neill, B. al. (2026)
to be submitted
HL-WITCH: High-to-Low scenario marker
Aleluia Reis L., Drouet, L.,Gambarini, M. et al. (2026)
to be submitted
Aleluia Reis L., Drouet, L.,Gambarini, M. et al. (2026)
to be submitted
M-IMAGE: Medium scenario marker
Hooijschuur, E., Daioglou, V., de Boer, H.S., Tagomori, I. et al. (2026)
to be submitted
Hooijschuur, E., Daioglou, V., de Boer, H.S., Tagomori, I. et al. (2026)
to be submitted
ML-COFFEE Medium-Low scenario marker
Baptista, L.B., Schaeffer, R., Angelkorte, G. et al. (2026)
to be submitted
Baptista, L.B., Schaeffer, R., Angelkorte, G. et al. (2026)
to be submitted
L-MESSAGE-GLOBIOM: Low scenario marker
Fricko, O., Wu, Y., Zhang, S. et al. (2026)
to be submitted
Fricko, O., Wu, Y., Zhang, S. et al. (2026)
to be submitted
L-Neg-AIM: Low-to-Negative scenario marker
Fujimori, S., Nishiura, O. et al. (2026)
to be submitted
Fujimori, S., Nishiura, O. et al. (2026)
to be submitted
VL-REMIND-MAGPIE: Very Low scenario marker
Köhler-Schindler, L., Bauer, N., Baumstark, L., Humpenöder, F. et al. (2026)
to be submitted
Köhler-Schindler, L., Bauer, N., Baumstark, L., Humpenöder, F. et al. (2026)
to be submitted
Cross-cutting papers on land, energy and other dimensions
Energy transitions of the ScenarioMIP markers
Bertram, C., Luderer, G., Brutschin, E. et al. (2026)
to be submitted
Bertram, C., Luderer, G., Brutschin, E. et al. (2026)
to be submitted
Land-use and GHG emission futures in ScenarioMIP-CMIP7
Popp, A., Humpenöder, F. Hasegawa, T. et al. (2026)
to be submitted
Popp, A., Humpenöder, F. Hasegawa, T. et al. (2026)
to be submitted
Carbon dioxide removal deployment and sustainability assessment in the low emission scenarios for CMIP7
Nishiura O., Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T., Mori, S. et al. (2026)
to be submitted
Nishiura O., Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T., Mori, S. et al. (2026)
to be submitted
Non-CO₂ GHG emissions in future climate scenarios
Harmsen, M., Lena Höglund Isaksson, L., Daioglou, V. et al. (2026)
to be submitted
Harmsen, M., Lena Höglund Isaksson, L., Daioglou, V. et al. (2026)
to be submitted
Air pollution futures in scenarios for ScenarioMIP-CMIP7
Klimont, Z., Zhang S., Smith, S. et al. (2026)
to be submitted
Klimont, Z., Zhang S., Smith, S. et al. (2026)
to be submitted
Land-use harmonization: Global historical land-use changes and future land-use projections
Chini, L., Hurtt, G. et al. (2026)
to be submitted
Chini, L., Hurtt, G. et al. (2026)
to be submitted
Emissions harmonization and climate assessment
Harmonized and gridded emissions dataset for ScenarioMIP-CMIP7
Kikstra, J.S., Nicholls, Z., Gidden, M. et al. (2026)
to be submitted
Kikstra, J.S., Nicholls, Z., Gidden, M. et al. (2026)
to be submitted
Probabilistic simple climate model projections in support of ScenarioMIP scenario development
Nicholls, Z., Sandstad, M., Sanderson, B., Gasser, T. , Smith, C. et al. (2026)
to be submitted
Nicholls, Z., Sandstad, M., Sanderson, B., Gasser, T. , Smith, C. et al. (2026)
to be submitted
FLEX: ScenarioMIP CMIP7 Post-2100 Extensions Framework
Sandstad, M., Chini, L., Friedlinstein, P. et al. (2026)
to be submitted
Sandstad, M., Chini, L., Friedlinstein, P. et al. (2026)
to be submitted
Pre-release of emissions and climate outcomes
Prior to the release of the ScenarioMIP/CMIP7 IAM quantifications, the harmonized and infilled emissions and climate outcomes for the marker scenarios was published as input to Earth System Models (ESMs) in the CMIP7 process.
ScenarioMIP-CMIP7 IAM quantification: Harmonized and Infilled Emissions and Climate Outcomes for Marker Scenarios
Kikstra, J., Nicholls, Z., Högner, A., Zecchetto, M., et al. (2026)
Zenodo
Kikstra, J., Nicholls, Z., Högner, A., Zecchetto, M., et al. (2026)
Zenodo